Do I ship it?

GamesBoxingBoxing + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Boxing game?

Boxing + Futuristic

Only 6 developers shipped a Futuristic Boxing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sportvida CyberDash, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $630. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Boxing + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Boxing + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 5% $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 25
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Boxing
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 535 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $4.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Boxing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  2. + SimulationFair39 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  3. + StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $4.5k · 21 announced
  4. + FightingPoor odds16 devs · median $4.2k · 26 announced
  5. + 2D FighterPoor odds14 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds30 devs · median $1.4k · 47 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds18 devs · median $1.3k · 24 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds61 devs · median $898 · 62 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds65 devs · median $719 · 84 announced
  10. + CombatPoor odds49 devs · median $719 · 70 announced
  11. + PvPPoor odds16 devs · median $718 · 38 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $718 · 27 announced

All 24 pairs on the Boxing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A.D. 2047 older $19.99 79 62% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) Leenzee Games
Dance Collider older $4.99 169 80% 5.1k $25k (exactly $25,299) emergeWorlds
Fighting Robots older $2.99 228 54% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,452) HFM Games
Girlfight 2024 older $7.99 18 33% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Wildcard Entertainment
Sportvida CyberDash $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ible Sportvida
Metal Combat $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Solar Studios
Rushing Beat Of Rage older $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Joystick Studio
Punchout: Music · EA older $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Officeu Co., Ltd.
Box: Boxing older $1.99 11 72% 330 $657 (exactly $657) John's Project
ANIME Street Fight older $1.99 8 62% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Seito Games
Odania Sports Arena $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Odania GmbH
GeoBoxer $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Phenomaker
FISTAGON $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Virtual Dawn
Cyber Boxing Arena $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JJTW Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.