Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Sandbox?

Sandbox + Board Game

Of 36 developers who shipped a Board Game Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×412 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 26 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 26 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $11k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $12k → $838 → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,432)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $258,543)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 109
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Board Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,470 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M Dorfromantik 2022 · $12M TaleSpire 2021 · EA · $3.3M Niche - a genetics survival game 2017 · $2.4M Card Survival: Tropical Island 2022 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
Niche - a genetics survival game older $17.99 4,356 88% 131k $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) Stray Fawn Studio
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Just Die Already older $14.99 2,791 84% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,113) DoubleMoose Games
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Nantucket older $17.99 782 78% 23k $422k (exactly $422,045) Picaresque Games
Small World older $9.99 931 71% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Days of Wonder
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
仙之气 · EA $10.99 114 74% 3.4k $38k (exactly $37,586) 按键工坊
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
Islantiles $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Thunderrock Innovations
Qianli: The Vastscape Scroll $9.99 79 86% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Betobe Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.