Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Board Game?

Physics + Board Game

Of 29 developers who shipped a Physics Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 795% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $60 → $0 → $90 → $269 → $2.0k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $15,868)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 94
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 795% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Board Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Tabletop, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 508 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $15k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) 2019 · $187k Mahjong 2017 · $177k Flick Shot Rogues 2025 · $133k Fated Kingdom 2019 · $78k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) older $24.99 250 70% 7.5k $187k (exactly $187,425) Auroch Digital
Mahjong older $9.99 589 84% 18k $177k (exactly $176,523) Sanuk Games
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Fated Kingdom older $9.99 260 73% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,922) GameLiberty
Switchball HD older $12.99 145 88% 4.4k $57k (exactly $56,506) Atomic Elbow
Tabletop Playground · EA older $14.99 121 79% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) Plasticity Studios
Takoyaki Party Survival older $2.99 222 94% 6.7k $20k (exactly $19,913) KIMIDORI SOFT
Yacht Dice older $0.99 610 77% 18k $18k (exactly $18,117) GoodOldMan Studio
Sophie's Dice older $4.99 121 99% 3.6k $18k (exactly $18,114) Sophie Houlden
Break Shoot $4.99 106 99% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) UPTRAND
Mini Bash $9.99 33 93% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Imperial Reality Labs
All On Board! $9.99 25 68% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) The Game Kitchen
ENDSTATION $2.99 22 95% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) bal_duin
Biida-Bash $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Silver Thumb Games
Disc Dungeon $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fire Titan Games
Shogi 3D · EA $9.99 3 0% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Hard Shark Games
Boardcraft: Crokinole $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Boardcraft Studios
ScreenSaver Battle $2.99 8 100% 240 $718 (exactly $718) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.