Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Board Game

Only 12 developers shipped a Board Game Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Treasure Atlas, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 335% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,518)
Top 5% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 10
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 335% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Board Game
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 77 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $4.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dynamic Dungeons Editor older $29.99 158 60% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Dynamic Dungeons
Dr. Kobushi's Labyrinthine Laboratory older $9.99 50 94% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Symbolic Software
Treasure Atlas · EA $11.99 12 83% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) zzeerr
Paper Dungeons older $4.99 25 48% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Stephane Valverde, Leslie Valverde
Check and Slash older $4.99 24 91% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Gate of Madness
Card Rogue $4.99 22 63% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Game Tsukuru Kun
Dice & Dungeons older $2.99 35 68% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Beni Games
Tileweaver $11.99 7 100% 210 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) Mattalarc & Wolter
Lit Up older $1.99 41 97% 1.2k $2.4k (exactly $2,448) Waidy Andrade
Fourteen Fiends older $4.99 11 90% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Ash Jackson
Box Dungeons $1.99 18 88% 540 $1.1k (exactly $1,075) Mito Games
15 Minutes Dungeon $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Daruma The Factory, Inc.
Intermundia: Dungeons, Polygons & Magic · EA $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Trinity Team, Excaliber
Slither Link Plus $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Vector Game
Dungeon (W)Hoarders $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Chad McCoskey
Warrior's Dilemma $0.99 5 80% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Happy Hippocampus
Tombs Of Myra $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Asylum Square

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.