Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Beat 'em up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Beat 'em up Sandbox?

Sandbox + Beat 'em up

Of 23 developers who shipped a Beat 'em up Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2337 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Beat 'em up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.7k → $839 → $1.5M → $959 → $1.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Beat 'em up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,941)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 83
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.77

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Beat 'em up
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Beat 'em up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Exploration
Price point
$7.77 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Comic Book, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.77.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 10,485 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $960, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Bully: Scholarship Edition older $14.99 37,562 84% 1.1M $17M (exactly $16,891,631) Rockstar New England
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
DEAD RISING® older $9.99 5,751 89% 173k $1.7M (exactly $1,723,575) Capcom
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
The friends of Ringo Ishikawa older $14.99 2,916 89% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,311,325) yeo
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
Melon Simulator™ $4.99 74 85% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) Delirious & Co.
Nekurogahara: Ronin Psyche $39.99 4 75% 120 $4.8k (exactly $4,799) n1lknarf
Knockout Battle $4.99 24 70% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Dani Tikka Masala, Alvin Leon Dobric, A… (Dani Tikka Masala, Alvin Leon Dobric, Anton Ploetner)
RAGING BILL $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) ARTPUNK STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.