Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Turn-Based Tactics?

Base Building + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 74 developers who shipped a Base Building Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 152 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1152 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 152 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 152 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479k → $25k → $1.8k → $31k → $15k → $2.0k → $20k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,359)
Top 5% $723k (exactly $723,238)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 182
Announced 152
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 15,754 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 152 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022 · $9.1M Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Xenonauts older $24.99 3,815 86% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) Goldhawk Interactive
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.