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Should I ship a Turn-Based Base Building game?
Base Building + Turn-Based
Of 21 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $41k, ×66 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1192 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) |
|---|---|
| Median | $41k (exactly $41,359) |
| Top 25% | $336k (exactly $336,432) |
| Top 5% | $749k (exactly $748,760) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 71 |
| Announced | 34 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Roguelike
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 9,285 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M 
The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M 
King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022 · $9.1M 
Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M 
Tainted Grail: Conquest 2021 · $4.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
| | The Last Spell | older | $24.99 | 13,260 91% | 398k | $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) | Ishtar Games |
| | King Arthur: Knight's Tale | older | $44.99 | 6,722 83% | 202k | $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) | NeocoreGames |
| | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
| | Tainted Grail: Conquest | older | $19.99 | 7,589 90% | 228k | $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) | Questline |
 | Terraforming Mars | older | $19.99 | 5,194 71% | 156k | $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) | Artefacts Studio |
 | Xenonauts | older | $24.99 | 3,815 86% | 114k | $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) | Goldhawk Interactive |
 | Might & Magic: Heroes VI | older | $9.99 | 8,545 47% | 256k | $2.6M (exactly $2,560,936) | Blackhole |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Gladiator Guild Manager | older | $14.99 | 3,808 80% | 114k | $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) | Entertainment Forge |
 | Card Survival: Fantasy Forest | · EA | $21.99 | 1,135 76% | 34k | $749k (exactly $748,760) | WinterSpring Games |
 | Deck of Haunts | $19.99 | 1,206 84% | 36k | $723k (exactly $723,238) | Mantis | |
 | Urban Strife | $34.99 | 653 69% | 20k | $685k (exactly $685,454) | White Pond Games | |
 | Gnomes | $9.99 | 1,757 94% | 53k | $527k (exactly $526,573) | DYSTOPIAN | |
 | Bloodgrounds | $19.99 | 561 77% | 17k | $336k (exactly $336,432) | Exordium Games | |
 | MINOS | $17.99 | 544 88% | 16k | $294k (exactly $293,597) | Artificer | |
 | Pile Up! | $9.99 | 961 73% | 29k | $288k (exactly $288,012) | Remoob | |
 | The Monster Breeder | $29.99 | 272 91% | 8.2k | $245k (exactly $244,718) | Fantasy Creations | |
 | Railroads & Catacombs | $19.99 | 358 73% | 11k | $215k (exactly $214,693) | MadRails |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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