Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG Base Building game?

Base Building + Tactical RPG

Of 46 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 104 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 104 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $69k → $25k → $6.7k → $4.5k → $41k → $4.8k → $19k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,192)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 128
Announced 104
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 10,583 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RimWorld 2018 · $219M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022 · $9.1M Mind Over Magic 2025 · $3.2M Starpoint Gemini Warlords 2017 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
War Hospital older $29.99 1,006 60% 30k $905k (exactly $905,098) Brave Lamb Studio S.A.
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Valorborn · EA $24.99 492 60% 15k $369k (exactly $368,852) Laps Games
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
Sector Unknown $24.99 373 80% 11k $280k (exactly $279,638) Creative Storm Entertainment
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Lewd Dungeon Manager 🔞 $14.99 139 66% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Lewd Star

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.