Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Strategy game?

Base Building + Strategy

Of 911 developers who shipped a Base Building Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,891 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2415 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,891 games are announced against 546 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,891 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 911
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $7.0k → $5.5k → $4.5k → $6.2k → $4.0k → $6.1k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 911
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,964)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,516,641)
Developers, 2 yr 911
Released games 2,378
Announced 1,891
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 463,227 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 420 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,891 games are announced against 546 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.