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Should I ship a Base Building Simulation game?
Base Building + Simulation
Of 773 developers who shipped a Base Building Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,667 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 1,667 games are announced against 461 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.4k (exactly $1,435) |
|---|---|
| Median | $11k (exactly $11,012) |
| Top 25% | $120k (exactly $119,952) |
| Top 5% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 773 |
| Released games | 1,871 |
| Announced | 1,667 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Management, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 623,077 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 361 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,667 games are announced against 461 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Satisfactory 2024 · $282M 
Sons Of The Forest 2024 · $256M 
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
Squad 2020 · $217M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Satisfactory | older | $39.99 | 234,993 97% | 7.0M | $282M (exactly $281,921,102) | Coffee Stain Studios |
| | Sons Of The Forest | older | $29.99 | 284,572 88% | 8.5M | $256M (exactly $256,029,428) | Endnight Games Ltd |
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
 | Factorio | older | $35.00 | 191,814 97% | 5.8M | $201M (exactly $201,404,700) | Wube Software LTD. |
 | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
 | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
 | ASTRONEER | older | $29.99 | 118,844 91% | 3.6M | $107M (exactly $106,923,947) | System Era Softworks |
 | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 3 | $59.99 | 11,387 93% | 342k | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) | Frontier Developments | |
 | RoadCraft | $39.99 | 13,527 74% | 406k | $16M (exactly $16,228,342) | Saber Interactive | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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