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Should I ship a Roguelike Base Building game?
Base Building + Roguelike
Of 178 developers who shipped a Roguelike Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 355 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×9.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2001 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 355 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.1k (exactly $6,110) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $49,858) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 178 |
| Released games | 337 |
| Announced | 355 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Tower Defense
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 66,703 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 76 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 355 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Dwarf Fortress 2022 · $26M 
BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M 
PlateUp! 2022 · $11M 
The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M 
The Wandering Village 2025 · $7.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dwarf Fortress | older | $29.99 | 29,303 94% | 879k | $26M (exactly $26,363,909) | Bay 12 Games |
| | BALL x PIT | $14.99 | 24,714 95% | 741k | $11M (exactly $11,113,886) | Kenny Sun and Friends | |
| | PlateUp! | older | $19.99 | 18,500 94% | 555k | $11M (exactly $11,094,450) | It's happening |
| | The Last Spell | older | $24.99 | 13,260 91% | 398k | $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) | Ishtar Games |
| | The Wandering Village | $29.99 | 7,734 91% | 232k | $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
 | Kingdom: New Lands | older | $14.99 | 10,152 86% | 305k | $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) | Noio |
 | Tainted Grail: Conquest | older | $19.99 | 7,589 90% | 228k | $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) | Questline |
 | The King is Watching | $14.99 | 9,006 88% | 270k | $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) | Hypnohead | |
 | Outlaws of the Old West | · EA older | $19.99 | 5,584 58% | 168k | $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) | Virtual Basement LLC |
 | Tower Dominion | $17.49 | 5,117 85% | 154k | $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) | Parallel 45 Games | |
 | Cinderia | · EA | $17.99 | 4,763 88% | 143k | $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) | MyACG Studio |
 | Emberward | $19.99 | 3,775 96% | 113k | $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) | Refic Games | |
 | Nordhold | $19.99 | 2,875 87% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) | StunForge | |
 | Drill Core | $19.99 | 2,130 84% | 64k | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) | Hungry Couch Games | |
 | Menace from the Deep | $16.99 | 2,466 84% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) | Flat Lab | |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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