Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Resource Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Resource Management Base Building game?

Base Building + Resource Management

Of 642 developers who shipped a Resource Management Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,398 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2987 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,398 games are announced against 401 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,398 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Resource Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 642
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $12k → $34k → $14k → $27k → $5.5k → $11k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Resource Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 642
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $7.7k (exactly $7,740)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $103,116)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874)
Developers, 2 yr 642
Released games 1,409
Announced 1,398
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Resource Management
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Resource Management; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 185,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $7.7k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 275 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,398 games are announced against 401 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Jurassic World Evolution 2 older $59.99 39,644 90% 1.2M $71M (exactly $71,347,307) Frontier Developments
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.