Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim Base Building game?

Base Building + Political Sim

Of 20 developers who shipped a Political Sim Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×44858 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $85k → $9.4k → $1.1k → $90k (still earning) → $157k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $160k (exactly $159,520)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,170,938)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 48
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Political Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Strategy, City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $32.00 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $32.00 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 27,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M Eco 2018 · EA · $10M MEMORIAPOLIS 2025 · $1.7M Ascension 2025 · EA · $1.5M Honey, I Joined a Cult 2022 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Honey, I Joined a Cult older $25.99 1,380 73% 41k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,986) Sole Survivor Games
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Imagine Earth older $24.99 810 79% 24k $607k (exactly $607,257) Serious Bros.
Deisim older $14.99 873 93% 26k $393k (exactly $392,588) Myron Games
春秋 · EA older $17.99 382 60% 11k $206k (exactly $206,165) weiqian
Pompeii: The Legacy $19.99 266 80% 8.0k $160k (exactly $159,520) Siscia Games
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
SandTable War: Three Kingdoms $9.99 301 84% 9.0k $90k (exactly $90,210) 古玩工作室
Epoch Cycle $8.99 79 68% 2.4k $21k (exactly $21,306) GeometricUniverse
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.
Life of an NPC · EA $14.99 21 52% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Max Loh

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.