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Should I ship a Physics Base Building game?
Base Building + Physics
Of 75 developers who shipped a Physics Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 220 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×22027 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 220 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.1k (exactly $1,077) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.7k (exactly $6,746) |
| Top 25% | $268k (exactly $267,617) |
| Top 5% | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 75 |
| Released games | 180 |
| Announced | 220 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Sandbox, Crafting
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 201,946 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 220 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Scrap Mechanic 2026 · $95M 
Space Engineers 2019 · $60M 
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M 
RoadCraft 2025 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
| | Space Engineers | older | $19.99 | 100,533 89% | 3.0M | $60M (exactly $60,289,640) | Keen Software House |
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
| | RoadCraft | $39.99 | 13,527 74% | 406k | $16M (exactly $16,228,342) | Saber Interactive | |
 | Gas Station Simulator | older | $19.99 | 23,839 88% | 715k | $14M (exactly $14,296,248) | DRAGO entertainment |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Forts | older | $14.99 | 21,216 92% | 636k | $9.5M (exactly $9,540,835) | EarthWork Games |
 | Stationeers | · EA older | $34.99 | 8,597 88% | 258k | $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) | RocketWerkz |
 | Waterpark Simulator | $12.99 | 13,280 96% | 398k | $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) | CayPlay | |
 | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
 | Lost Skies | $24.99 | 2,470 63% | 74k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) | Bossa Studios | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
 | ALL WILL FALL | $29.99 | 1,262 76% | 38k | $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) | All Parts Connected |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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