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Should I ship a Perma Death Base Building game?
Base Building + Perma Death
Of 36 developers who shipped a Perma Death Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $500k, ×804 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 108 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $959 (exactly $959) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $16,189) |
| Top 5% | $505k (exactly $504,754) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 36 |
| Released games | 85 |
| Announced | 108 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 4,416 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition 2020 · $53M 
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M 
The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M 
State of Decay: YOSE 2015 · $6.3M 
Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition | older | $29.99 | 59,156 83% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,222,653) | Undead Labs |
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
| | The Last Spell | older | $24.99 | 13,260 91% | 398k | $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) | Ishtar Games |
| | State of Decay: YOSE | older | $19.99 | 10,526 82% | 316k | $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) | Undead Labs |
| | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
 | Soulash 2 | · EA older | $18.99 | 2,382 85% | 71k | $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) | Artur Smiarowski |
 | Dungeon Settlers | · EA | $24.99 | 1,117 79% | 34k | $837k (exactly $837,415) | CanOpener |
 | Goblin Stone | older | $24.99 | 735 52% | 22k | $551k (exactly $551,030) | Orc Chop Games |
 | UnReal World | older | $14.50 | 1,224 93% | 37k | $532k (exactly $532,440) | Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer)) |
 | Rune Coliseum | · EA | $18.99 | 886 79% | 27k | $505k (exactly $504,754) | Rafale Software |
 | Bloodgrounds | $19.99 | 561 77% | 17k | $336k (exactly $336,432) | Exordium Games | |
 | The Monster Breeder | $29.99 | 272 91% | 8.2k | $245k (exactly $244,718) | Fantasy Creations | |
 | Escape The Mad Empire | · EA | $17.99 | 406 88% | 12k | $219k (exactly $219,118) | XperimentalZ Games |
 | Railroads & Catacombs | $19.99 | 358 73% | 11k | $215k (exactly $214,693) | MadRails | |
 | EverRail | · EA | $14.99 | 372 69% | 11k | $167k (exactly $167,288) | Aesir Interactive |
 | WAR RATS: The Rat em Up | $11.99 | 382 95% | 11k | $137k (exactly $137,405) | wootusart Industries | |
 | Demiurges | $14.99 | 36 88% | 1.1k | $16k (exactly $16,189) | Berih | |
 | Hand of Hexes | $11.99 | 26 96% | 780 | $9.4k (exactly $9,352) | emmdieh |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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