Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Base Building game?

Base Building + Loot

Of 68 developers who shipped a Loot Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×9.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1136 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 153 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 153 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $4.0k → $3.3k → $10k → $7.2k → $2.2k → $31k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 25% $98k (exactly $97,751)
Top 5% $714k (exactly $713,643)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 140
Announced 153
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Loot; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 26,153 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $97k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Wild Terra 2: New Lands older $39.99 1,379 62% 41k $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) Juvty Worlds
DeadPoly · EA older $9.99 5,384 78% 162k $1.6M (exactly $1,613,585) TFL Games
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
The Lost Village older $11.99 2,743 70% 82k $987k (exactly $986,657) FunYoo Games
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
GRAIN ROT $9.99 1,845 88% 55k $553k (exactly $552,946) Beck & Branch Games
Beyond the Map · EA $19.99 764 77% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) Glitch Goblins
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games
Darfall $24.99 491 71% 15k $368k (exactly $368,103) SquareNite

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.