Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Base Building game?

Base Building + Life Sim

Of 145 developers who shipped a Life Sim Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 282 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×38 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2710 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 282 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 38.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 282 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $4.7k → $68k → $91k → $132k → $29k → $11k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Median $24k (exactly $24,116)
Top 25% $142k (exactly $141,656)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 292
Announced 282
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 61,185 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 5 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 282 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
The Tenants older $19.99 7,071 79% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,240,479) EndGameLoop Games
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Mr. Prepper older $19.99 4,795 81% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,875,562) Rejected Games
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
Parcel Simulator $17.99 2,804 93% 84k $1.5M (exactly $1,513,319) Dansan Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.