Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Base Building game?

Base Building + Incremental

Of 92 developers who shipped an Incremental Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 205 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×532 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 205 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 205 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $1.4k → $1.9k → $1.9k → $628 → $2.5k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,187)
Top 5% $334k (exactly $333,866)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 188
Announced 205
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 260% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Incremental; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 16,378 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 205 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Startup Company 2020 · $2.3M BitCraft Online 2025 · EA · $1.6M Outpath 2023 · $1.3M Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M Microcivilization 2026 · $776k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Microcivilization $17.99 1,437 78% 43k $776k (exactly $775,549) Ondrej Homola
Hearth and Hamlet $7.99 2,050 79% 62k $491k (exactly $491,385) Phorust Studios
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Dwarf Eats Mountain $9.99 1,114 80% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Green Wizard
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Capybara Spa older $7.99 1,345 94% 40k $322k (exactly $322,396) Cozy Bee Games
IDLE BOSS RUSH $9.99 820 66% 25k $246k (exactly $245,754) Irid Games
Lakeside Bar $5.99 820 86% 25k $147k (exactly $147,354) BITCOVER
Berserk B.I.T.S $6.99 667 81% 20k $140k (exactly $139,870) BerserkBoy Games
Midori no Kaori $9.99 464 94% 14k $139k (exactly $139,061) TheLaba

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.