Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Base Building game?

Base Building + Idler

Of 130 developers who shipped an Idler Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 228 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×782 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 228 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 228 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $7.4k → $64k → $5.2k → $1.0k → $2.4k → $2.1k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $491k (exactly $491,385)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 242
Announced 228
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 44,468 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 228 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Microcivilization $17.99 1,437 78% 43k $776k (exactly $775,549) Ondrej Homola
Hotel Galactic · EA $34.99 594 73% 18k $624k (exactly $623,522) EndGameLoop Games
Furnish Master · EA older $14.99 1,108 81% 33k $498k (exactly $498,268) Alex Blintsov
Hearth and Hamlet $7.99 2,050 79% 62k $491k (exactly $491,385) Phorust Studios
Beltmatic older $6.99 2,199 94% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Notional Games
Dwarf Eats Mountain $9.99 1,114 80% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Green Wizard
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Your Big, Cute Monster Farm $7.99 1,097 78% 33k $263k (exactly $262,951) KaiPlay Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.