Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Base Building game?

Base Building + Hex Grid

Of 26 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2327 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 72 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 72 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.6k → $600 → $807 → $3.9k → $1.9k → $24k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,863)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 70
Announced 72
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Resource Management
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 6,954 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Terraforming Mars 2018 · $3.1M Plan B: Terraform 2025 · $1.7M Ascension 2025 · EA · $1.5M Sheltered 2 2021 · $1.2M Before We Leave 2021 · $766k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Sheltered 2 older $19.99 2,015 45% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) Unicube
Before We Leave older $19.99 1,278 78% 38k $766k (exactly $766,417) Balancing Monkey Games
Rising Lords older $19.99 904 70% 27k $542k (exactly $542,129) Argonwood
Hexguardian older $11.99 617 78% 19k $222k (exactly $221,935) Split Second Games
MoteMancer · EA $29.99 243 91% 7.3k $219k (exactly $218,627) CyanAvatar Studios
Landnama older $13.99 439 74% 13k $184k (exactly $184,248) Sonderland
MicroTown · EA older $9.99 444 94% 13k $133k (exactly $133,067) Snowy Ash Games
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Mistward $11.99 74 59% 2.2k $27k (exactly $26,618) Sokpop Collective
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Demiurges $14.99 36 88% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Berih

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.