Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Base Building game?

Base Building + Fishing

Of 33 developers who shipped a Fishing Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×680 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 83 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 83 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $55k → $37k → $33k → $4.8k → $22k → $1.3k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $716 (exactly $716)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,262)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $426,765)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 73
Announced 83
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Fishing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,619 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Tribe: Primitive Builder older $19.99 670 79% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Space Boat Studios, Baked Games
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Retreat To Enen older $24.99 340 62% 10k $255k (exactly $254,898) Head West
My Little Life $5.99 1,043 89% 31k $187k (exactly $187,427) 9FingerGames
Lakeside Bar $5.99 820 86% 25k $147k (exactly $147,354) BITCOVER
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
SeaColony · EA $14.99 76 61% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) Emindev
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames
Russian Village Simulator on Mars $15.99 58 77% 1.7k $28k (exactly $27,823) VD Games, PropilGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.