Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Base Building game?

Base Building + Farming Sim

Of 134 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 237 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 237 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 237 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 134
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $25k → $24k → $31k → $34k → $8.1k → $2.4k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 134
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,396)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $100,543)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Developers, 2 yr 134
Released games 257
Announced 237
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Farming Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 73,442 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 6 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 237 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Timberborn 2026 · $40M Forager 2019 · $21M The Wandering Village 2025 · $7.0M Ostriv 2020 · EA · $5.1M Farm Together 2 2025 · $3.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
Out of Ore older $24.99 3,978 85% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,982,307) North Modding Company AB
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Havendock $19.99 1,504 81% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) YYZ Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.