Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Base Building game?

Base Building + Deckbuilding

Of 54 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×21 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3605 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 124 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 124 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $152k → $13k → $41k → $29k → $41k → $3.6k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Median $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $103,116)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 91
Announced 124
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 28,966 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.9k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 5 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M Tainted Grail: Conquest 2021 · $4.6M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M The King is Watching 2025 · $4.0M Emberward 2026 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.