Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Base Building game?

Base Building + Cooking

Of 53 developers who shipped a Cooking Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2113 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 134 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 134 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $192k → $11k → $52k → $27k → $251k → $18k → $54k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Median $11k (exactly $11,301)
Top 25% $93k (exactly $92,828)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 111
Announced 134
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Cooking; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 15,290 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
REKA · EA older $19.99 2,989 82% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) Emberstorm Entertainment
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games
Crossroads Inn Anniversary Edition older $14.99 3,579 55% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,609,476) Klabater
Chef RPG · EA older $19.99 2,593 87% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,022) World 2 Studio
Wrap House Simulator🌯 $14.99 2,951 87% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065) Broken Lyre Entertainment, Wendigo Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Sunset Motel $18.99 728 77% 22k $415k (exactly $414,742) Efkey Studios
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
SkyBrew: Entropic Strategist $17.99 522 75% 16k $282k (exactly $281,723) ATRIC Games
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.