Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Base Building game?

Base Building + Collectathon

Of 30 developers who shipped a Collectathon Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×618 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 63 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 63 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $10k → $2.9k → $4.3k → $10k → $45k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $716 (exactly $716)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,652)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,756)
Top 5% $388k (exactly $388,345)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 71
Announced 63
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Life Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Mudborne: Frog Management Sim $7.99 993 96% 30k $238k (exactly $238,022) ellraiser, TNgineers
My Little Life $5.99 1,043 89% 31k $187k (exactly $187,427) 9FingerGames
Rewind 99 $11.99 436 69% 13k $157k (exactly $156,829) Gunmetal Games, Real Fake Games
Research Story $14.99 309 94% 9.3k $139k (exactly $138,957) Petal Cat Games
Miniland Adventure older $10.99 290 72% 8.7k $96k (exactly $95,613) Imilkowski Dev
Ad Fundum older $6.99 429 93% 13k $90k (exactly $89,961) Oldbut Gold
OddFauna : Secret of the Terrabeast · EA $24.99 60 90% 1.8k $45k (exactly $44,982) North Channel
Lower? Higher! $9.99 146 67% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Unplugged Studio
My Money Grows On Trees $9.99 44 54% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Tbjbu2
Mad Merchant $5.99 72 79% 2.2k $13k (exactly $12,938) Ravenholm Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.