Do I ship it?

GamesCo-op CampaignCo-op Campaign + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Campaign Base Building game?

Co-op Campaign + Base Building

Only 14 developers shipped a Co-op Campaign Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Abiotic Factor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $23k against a market of $1.5k. 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 15.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 29 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op Campaign + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $63k → $235k → $185k → $693 → $1.4M
Outcomes for Co-op Campaign + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Median $23k (exactly $22,777)
Top 25% $185k (exactly $185,338)
Top 5% $44M (exactly $44,166,128)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 37
Announced 29
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op Campaign
effort 8 / 10 · low · shared campaign state over the network
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Co-op Campaign, Base Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Co-op, Combat
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 44,756 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.9k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $44M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.9k. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op Campaign with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  2. + ZombiesPoor odds12 devs · median $27k · 22 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $27k · 27 announced
  4. + SurvivalPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds31 devs · median $14k · 66 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds19 devs · median $14k · 39 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 153 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 78 announced
  9. + Puzzle PlatformerPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds19 devs · median $6.6k · 29 announced
  11. + PlatformerPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds17 devs · median $6.2k · 34 announced

All 81 pairs on the Co-op Campaign page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
Command & Conquer™ Red Alert™ 3 older $6.96 14,605 85% 438k $3.0M (exactly $3,049,524) EA Los Angeles
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
Frozen Flame · EA older $19.99 2,231 61% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,337,931) Dreamside Interactive
Godsworn · EA older $29.99 805 93% 24k $724k (exactly $724,258) Thunderoak Interactive
Beyond Contact older $19.99 999 71% 30k $599k (exactly $599,100) Playcorp Studios
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids $29.99 90 83% 2.7k $81k (exactly $80,973) Snapshot Games Inc.
Keep Keepers $17.99 135 87% 4.1k $73k (exactly $72,860) Thunderrock Innovations
Stellarcraft $9.99 76 88% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) DreamStudios, Sandstorm in a Bottle
Lugal: Bronze Age Survival Game · EA $14.99 35 71% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Tea & Cake Games
Tactical Warfare $9.99 52 67% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mizrab
Cats go! : Tactical Defense Braw $4.99 39 97% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Minimum Studio Corp.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.