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Should I ship a Physics Auto Battler?
Physics + Auto Battler
Of 26 developers who shipped a Physics Auto Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×497 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $718 (exactly $718) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $19,655) |
| Top 5% | $312k (exactly $312,196) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 26 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Auto Battler
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Auto Battler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Sandbox, Simulation
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,522 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Ballionaire 2024 · $888k 
Annihilate The Spance 2025 · EA · $312k 
Gratuitous Space Battles 2009 · $255k 
Wooden Battles 2017 · $154k 
Candy Disaster - Tower Defense 2021 · $105k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
| | Annihilate The Spance | · EA | $29.99 | 347 90% | 10k | $312k (exactly $312,196) | Skyglow Softworks |
| | Gratuitous Space Battles | older | $14.99 | 568 72% | 17k | $255k (exactly $255,430) | Positech Games |
| | Wooden Battles | older | $9.99 | 515 79% | 15k | $154k (exactly $154,346) | SP Digital Arts Inc. |
| | Candy Disaster - Tower Defense | older | $13.99 | 250 81% | 7.5k | $105k (exactly $104,925) | ACE Entertainment |
 | Operation: Polygon Storm | older | $14.99 | 233 69% | 7.0k | $105k (exactly $104,780) | Toxic Studio |
 | The Bibites: Digital Life | · EA | $9.99 | 218 96% | 6.5k | $65k (exactly $65,335) | Omnia Studios |
 | Electro Bop Boxing League | $14.99 | 84 79% | 2.5k | $38k (exactly $37,775) | Developer Dob | |
 | ploink | $12.99 | 91 96% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,463) | Pyrocreep | |
 | Steve's Warehouse: Physics. Roguelike. Chaos. | $7.99 | 130 87% | 3.9k | $31k (exactly $31,161) | Definitely Named Steve | |
 | Ballatory | $7.99 | 82 78% | 2.5k | $20k (exactly $19,655) | Mini Fun Games | |
 | Warlords Battle Simulator | $9.99 | 55 67% | 1.7k | $16k (exactly $16,484) | RedKar Devs | |
 | Bouncy Weapons | $4.99 | 85 44% | 2.6k | $13k (exactly $12,724) | LeenGameDev | |
 | 100FRIENDS | $9.99 | 32 87% | 960 | $9.6k (exactly $9,590) | TWIN PIXELS |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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