Do I ship it?

Games › Choose Your Own Adventure › Choose Your Own Adventure + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Assassins

Only 13 developers shipped an Assassin Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×65 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 27 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $12k → $4.3k
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $97k (exactly $97,168)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 38
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $97k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M NO, THANK YOU!!! 2018 · $216k マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 2023 · $149k Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE 2026 · $97k Trash Horror Collection 2022 · $88k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
NO, THANK YOU!!! older $39.99 180 87% 5.4k $216k (exactly $215,946) parade
マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 older $19.99 249 85% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) 213℉
Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE $29.99 108 94% 3.2k $97k (exactly $97,168) NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN
Trash Horror Collection older $5.99 488 95% 15k $88k (exactly $87,694) 616 GAMES
Trash Horror Collection 2 older $6.99 130 91% 3.9k $27k (exactly $27,261) 616 GAMES
Beyond R: Rule Ripper $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Tohriv, GJ Staff
The Divine Deception older $14.99 38 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Themisian
Grizzly Man $8.99 52 90% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) LCB Game Studio
Lethal Women: World of Femdom and Espionage older $9.99 39 79% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) MJZ42
超探偵シャーロックちゃん　～掟破りのミスディレクション～ $9.99 38 73% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) おんねんちゃんねる
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames
Futa Night ⚔️ $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) TheBigO Games
Circus of the Moon $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Davter17
Samurai's Odyssey · EA $7.99 6 66% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen
My Oppai Mommy Makes Me Want To Spill All Of My Company Secrets $6.99 5 80% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Peach Punch
Yindy $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Tidley 羊

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.