Do I ship it?

Games › Tactical RPG › Tactical RPG + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Artificial Intelligence

Of 22 developers who shipped an AI Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. Revenue is down 60% on the market, with 28 games announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $10k → $1.7k → $179 → $90 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $63k (exactly $62,508)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 55
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DIRECT CONTACT 2024 · EA · $148k Twilight Wars 2025 · $103k Three Fairies' Hoppin' Flappin' Great Journey! 2021 · $102k 天下霸圖 2023 · $69k Lewd Dungeon Manager 🔞 2026 · $63k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DIRECT CONTACT · EA older $14.99 328 31% 9.8k $148k (exactly $147,502) Mountain 81
Twilight Wars $14.99 229 74% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Comrade Bear Games
Three Fairies' Hoppin' Flappin' Great Journey! older $17.99 189 84% 5.7k $102k (exactly $102,003) yomogi_soft
天下霸圖 older $7.99 288 78% 8.6k $69k (exactly $69,034) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
Lewd Dungeon Manager 🔞 $14.99 139 66% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Lewd Star
三國立志傳2 older $7.99 135 80% 4.1k $32k (exactly $32,360) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
NebuLeet $15.99 53 90% 1.6k $25k (exactly $25,424) quasilyte
富甲天下W older $7.99 101 42% 3.0k $24k (exactly $24,210) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
Lustpunk 69 $8.99 83 87% 2.5k $22k (exactly $22,385) Kinky Business Group
Deal & Wheeler · EA older $9.99 40 40% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) ArtNeronDevelopment
Push It! $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) NeuroSlop Studio
Boundless AI Fantasy $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) João Vitor Andrioli de Souza
Idle Hero Siege $3.99 14 42% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) 光鸽
Voyna $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) HellYeah!
Jingjie: Probability Cloud - Nagumo's Dilemma · EA $14.99 2 0% 60 $899 (exactly $899) JK STUDIO
Ironseed 3 : Vigil $17.99 1 100% 30 $540 (exactly $540) Robert Morgan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.