Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Sandbox?

Sandbox + Artificial Intelligence

Of 78 developers who shipped an AI Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 178 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4350 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 178 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 178 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.6k → $4.3k → $8.5k → $6.1k → $65k → $170k → $7.0k (still earning) → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $2.0k (exactly $2,017)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 25% $82k (exactly $81,559)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 234
Announced 178
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 210% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 334,168 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 178 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Wobbledogs older $19.99 13,770 98% 413k $8.3M (exactly $8,257,869) Animal Uprising
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
Hello Neighbor 2 older $39.99 4,361 81% 131k $5.2M (exactly $5,231,892) Eerie Guest, tinyBuild
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Global Rescue · EA $24.99 1,864 86% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,441) PeDePe GbR
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
Sort Them Ducks $5.99 1,461 92% 44k $263k (exactly $262,542) Mr.Duck

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.