Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Artificial Intelligence

Of 35 developers who shipped an AI Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2150 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 63 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 63 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $2.6k → $1.9k → $4.6k → $750 → $899 → $420 (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,790)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 117
Announced 63
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 56% positive over 29,192 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 older $19.99 7,206 84% 216k $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) Brilliant Game Studios
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Close Combat: The Bloody First older $39.99 397 51% 12k $476k (exactly $476,281) Matrix Games
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Tap Dungeon $4.99 334 81% 10k $50k (exactly $50,000) Xiao5 Studios
SkyInFlames · EA $6.99 223 95% 6.7k $47k (exactly $46,763) VasyliyBritva
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound
All Your Wrestling Pro Manager $19.99 33 81% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) All Your Games Studios
2089 - Space Divided $17.99 28 75% 840 $15k (exactly $15,112) CoastGames GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.