Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Artificial Intelligence

Only 10 developers shipped an AI Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Meowgic, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 795% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $180 (exactly $180)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,741)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 31
Announced 9
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 795% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 78% positive over 549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $180, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cosmonious High older $19.99 230 94% 6.9k $138k (exactly $137,931) Owlchemy Labs
Meowgic $7.99 462 79% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) Lazy Turtle Games
Somewhere in the Shadow older $2.99 579 80% 17k $52k (exactly $51,936) Aydy, Nikolay Kulesh
The Lustful Inn of Female Adventurers $9.99 81 76% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) StudioVR
Frame - Portals on Steroids older $16.99 35 91% 1.1k $18k (exactly $17,840) MechanicsDriven
Dr. Kobushi's Labyrinthine Laboratory older $9.99 50 94% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Symbolic Software
B-Horror: Subway older $4.99 15 73% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) MozMesh
Forsaken older $14.99 4 25% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Atharv Raj Soni, Naman Choudhary, Aryan… (Atharv Raj Soni, Naman Choudhary, Aryans Tiwari)
ViruZ older $2.99 18 77% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) BigBread
The Last Fighter older $2.99 13 92% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Laush Studio
King Of The Dark Circuit $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) SavicNode
NULL $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Merelab
Li O's Online World $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Lil knee Games
Trust Me $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) SunnaLAB
The Eyes $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) The Unknown
Escape The Labyrinth $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Matteo Innusa
Escape from the Archives $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Brad Wright
Conundrum $54.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chen Min

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.