Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI FMV?

FMV + Artificial Intelligence

Of 33 developers who shipped an AI FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 20 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $67k → $300 → $179 → $300 (still earning) → $21k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 5% $452k (exactly $451,948)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 63
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 11,127 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
SIMULACRA 2 older $7.99 1,378 87% 41k $330k (exactly $330,307) Kaigan Games
Undercover $14.99 667 77% 20k $300k (exactly $299,950) intiny
Blade Runner: Enhanced Edition older $9.99 617 74% 19k $185k (exactly $184,915) Nightdive Studios, Westwood Studios
[ECHOSTASIS] older $19.99 215 90% 6.5k $129k (exactly $128,935) ENIGMA STUDIO
SEX Guild Simulator ⚔️🔞 $14.99 210 59% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Lewd Star
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
Hacked: The Streamer $8.49 268 73% 8.0k $68k (exactly $68,260) Button Interactive, NAISU
Love Chase older $5.99 371 83% 11k $67k (exactly $66,669) Topgame
LUST HAREM: 1001 Pleasures 💞 $14.99 143 71% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Dirty Adventures 🖤
WANTED: Wild Sluts 🔞 $14.99 140 68% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Lewd Star
Next Girl, Please 🎬 $14.99 129 86% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Lewd Star
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.