Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Exploration game?

Exploration + Artificial Intelligence

Of 159 developers who shipped an AI Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 353 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×895 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 353 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 353 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 159
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.7k → $1.5k → $419 → $772 → $1.4k → $719 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 159
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,066)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $425,187)
Developers, 2 yr 159
Released games 480
Announced 353
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.88

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action
Price point
$6.88 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.88.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 346,517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 353 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 older $19.99 7,206 84% 216k $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) Brilliant Game Studios
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
The Entropy Centre older $19.99 3,359 89% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) Stubby Games
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
SILENT BREATH $9.99 1,124 67% 34k $337k (exactly $336,863) EXODIAC STUDIOS
Detective Sherlock: Shadow Stalker · EA $19.99 428 88% 13k $257k (exactly $256,672) Gamercury

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.