Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Arena Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Arena Shooter?

PvP + Arena Shooter

Of 203 developers who shipped a PvP Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 540 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 120 developers shipped in the last year and 540 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 540 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Arena Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 203
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $1.8k → $449 → $899 → $449 → $359 → $449 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Arena Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 203
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,311)
Developers, 2 yr 203
Released games 796
Announced 540
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 37%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Arena Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 12,065 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 540 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DUSK 2018 · $13M Friends vs Friends 2023 · $3.3M Shotgun Farmers 2019 · $2.7M BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT 2025 · $1.2M Rise of the Triad 2013 · $857k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
Friends vs Friends older $9.99 10,860 83% 326k $3.3M (exactly $3,254,742) Brainwash Gang
Shotgun Farmers older $9.99 9,061 93% 272k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,582) Megastorm Games
BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT $4.99 7,743 97% 232k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,127) Joeveno
Rise of the Triad older $14.99 1,905 66% 57k $857k (exactly $856,678) Interceptor Entertainment
TRIBES 3: Rivals · EA older $19.99 1,324 61% 40k $794k (exactly $794,003) Prophecy Games
Worms Rumble older $14.99 1,698 60% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Team17 Digital
Ratz Instagib older $8.99 2,529 90% 76k $682k (exactly $682,071) Lino Slahuschek
Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball older $9.99 2,258 91% 68k $677k (exactly $676,723) Erik Asmussen
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
Midnight Murder Club $9.99 304 71% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Velan Studios
Last Flag $4.99 576 73% 17k $86k (exactly $86,227) Night Street Games
Tower Tag $9.99 180 90% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Steinfatt GmbH
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.