Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Arcade game?

Physics + Arcade

Of 1,065 developers who shipped a Physics Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,328 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 664 developers shipped in the last year and 1,328 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 1,328 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,065
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $449 → $419 → $479 → $416 → $390 → $449 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,065
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $72,766)
Developers, 2 yr 1,065
Released games 2,986
Announced 1,328
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 60,688 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $72k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 514 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,328 games are announced against 664 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

CarX Drift Racing Online 2017 · $42M Wreckfest 2018 · $28M Paint the Town Red 2021 · $17M Goat Simulator 2014 · $16M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CarX Drift Racing Online older $16.99 82,720 95% 2.5M $42M (exactly $42,162,384) CarX Technologies, LLC
Wreckfest older $29.99 31,390 87% 942k $28M (exactly $28,241,583) Bugbear
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Goat Simulator older $9.99 54,740 90% 1.6M $16M (exactly $16,405,578) Coffee Stain Studios
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
CarX Street older $19.99 17,600 72% 528k $11M (exactly $10,554,720) CarX Technologies, LLC
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Tricky Towers older $14.99 12,390 90% 372k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,783) WeirdBeard
JDM: Japanese Drift Master $34.99 5,217 75% 157k $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) Gaming Factory
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
NASCAR 25 $39.99 1,768 72% 53k $2.1M (exactly $2,121,070) iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, LLC
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Goblin Cleanup · EA $19.99 1,615 87% 48k $969k (exactly $968,515) Crisalu Games
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車！ · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.