Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Animals

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Animal Physics game?

Physics + Animals

Of 25 developers who shipped an Animal Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×603 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 86 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 86 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Animals
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $3.8k → $84k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Animals: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $378,521)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 31
Announced 86
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Animals
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Platformer, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Third Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 3,835 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
A Webbing Journey · EA $9.99 1,263 98% 38k $379k (exactly $378,521) Fire Totem Games
Beast Battle Simulator older $9.99 1,234 88% 37k $370k (exactly $369,830) DOG HOGGLER
MARSUPILAMI - HOOBADVENTURE older $19.99 430 94% 13k $258k (exactly $257,871) Ocellus Studio
Frog Sqwad 🐸 $7.99 352 72% 11k $84k (exactly $84,374) Panic Stations
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Only Way is Down $9.99 137 63% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) Jilted Generation Productions
Push Push $4.99 111 97% 3.3k $17k (exactly $16,617) 1ceAgain
TopplePOP: Bungee Blockbusters · EA $14.99 35 97% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) ArkimA
Cat Chaos $7.99 44 86% 1.3k $11k (exactly $10,547) Chaosverse Studio
Rise & Pop! $3.99 32 96% 960 $3.8k (exactly $3,830) HyperstasisGaming
Hole Your Horses: Champion Edition $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Intrusive Thoughts Creative Collective

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.