Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Aliens

Of 30 developers who shipped an Alien Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 58 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 58 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $238 → $359 → $4.2k → $300 → $0 → $450 → $150 (still earning) → $341 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $80,973)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 124
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Base Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 793 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Red Solstice 2: Survivors older $14.99 2,585 70% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,474) Ironward
DG2: Defense Grid 2 older $9.99 2,704 86% 81k $810k (exactly $810,389) Hidden Path Entertainment
Polaris Sector older $39.99 419 70% 13k $503k (exactly $502,674) SoftWarWare
No Creeps Were Harmed TD older $19.99 468 88% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) MinMax Games Ltd.
The Red Solstice older $9.99 883 72% 26k $265k (exactly $264,635) Ironward
Alien Shooter TD older $9.99 676 84% 20k $203k (exactly $202,597) Sigma Team Inc.
Alien Marauder · EA older $19.99 323 60% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) Vexan Studio
Stellar Warfare · EA older $19.99 318 81% 9.5k $191k (exactly $190,705) Tense Games
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids $29.99 90 83% 2.7k $81k (exactly $80,973) Snapshot Games Inc.
Guardians of Dao · EA $19.99 63 74% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) George Financial Holding Ltd.
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Space Tales $14.99 35 80% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Saigon Dragon Studios
Deep Dark Forest $7.99 41 87% 1.2k $9.8k (exactly $9,828) pixiangames
Expedition: Shadow World $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Pavel Tanonov
Strength In Numbers $4.99 22 95% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Ciaosen Games
Ant Guardians · EA $3.99 18 83% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,155) NotThisTime
Space Alliance: Frontier $6.99 7 57% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Black Lime Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.