Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Aliens

Of 183 developers who shipped an Alien Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 183 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 106 developers shipped in the last year and 183 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 183 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 183
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $386 → $598 → $1.1k → $299 → $628 → $449 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 183
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 5% $42k (exactly $41,822)
Developers, 2 yr 183
Released games 459
Announced 183
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 50,924 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 90 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 183 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Angel at Dusk older $14.99 1,676 98% 50k $754k (exactly $753,697) Akiragoya
Let Them Come older $7.99 1,084 84% 33k $260k (exactly $259,835) Tuatara Games
Genome Guardian older $11.99 711 92% 21k $256k (exactly $255,747) Alpherior
The Last Federation older $19.99 380 72% 11k $228k (exactly $227,886) Arcen Games
Go Mecha Ball older $19.99 371 85% 11k $222k (exactly $222,489) Whale Peak Games
Valfaris: Mecha Therion older $19.99 302 94% 9.1k $181k (exactly $181,109) Steel Mantis
Bit Blaster XL older $0.99 5,495 96% 165k $163k (exactly $163,202) Adamvision Studios
Space Invaders Extreme older $19.99 255 86% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) TAITO CORP.
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Starbreed $10.99 271 95% 8.1k $89k (exactly $89,349) RegulusNSFW
Raiden NOVA | 雷電NOVA | 雷電新星 $29.99 66 72% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) MOSS Co., Ltd.
Let Them Come: Onslaught $7.99 216 89% 6.5k $52k (exactly $51,775) Tuatara Games
MeowGun: Hell Denizen $12.99 114 98% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,426) SusaDeBastet
Flying Tank $14.99 97 86% 2.9k $44k (exactly $43,621) Hexage
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
Vortica $14.99 93 83% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Vortical Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.