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Should I ship an Adventure Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Adventure
Of 79 developers who shipped an Adventure Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 140 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $29k, ×46 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2620 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 140 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
|---|---|
| Median | $29k (exactly $28,786) |
| Top 25% | $108k (exactly $107,892) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 79 |
| Released games | 794 |
| Announced | 140 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Adventure
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Roguelite
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 25,296 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 140 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ | older | $29.99 | 60,770 97% | 1.8M | $55M (exactly $54,674,769) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth | older | $69.99 | 16,339 90% | 490k | $34M (exactly $34,306,998) | RGG Studio |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition | older | $39.99 | 27,485 88% | 825k | $33M (exactly $32,973,754) | Larian Studios |
| | South Park™: The Fractured But Whole™ | older | $29.99 | 31,985 85% | 960k | $29M (exactly $28,776,904) | Ubisoft San Francisco |
| | Wandering Sword | older | $24.99 | 37,034 94% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,764,390) | The Swordman Studio |
| | BATTLETECH | older | $39.99 | 23,024 84% | 691k | $28M (exactly $27,621,893) | Harebrained Schemes |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER II | older | $59.99 | 13,407 93% | 402k | $24M (exactly $24,128,578) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | $69.99 | 5,605 77% | 168k | $12M (exactly $11,768,818) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
| | DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined | $59.99 | 2,138 88% | 64k | $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) | Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc. | |
| | The Last Flame | $19.99 | 2,744 85% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) | Hotloop | |
| | Black Jacket | $14.99 | 1,751 91% | 53k | $787k (exactly $787,425) | Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH | |
| | Death Howl | $19.99 | 1,301 92% | 39k | $780k (exactly $780,210) | The Outer Zone | |
| | Card Survival: Fantasy Forest | · EA | $21.99 | 1,135 76% | 34k | $749k (exactly $748,760) | WinterSpring Games |
| | Lootbound | $14.99 | 1,248 77% | 37k | $561k (exactly $561,226) | ArtDock | |
| | NITRO GEN OMEGA | $29.99 | 398 83% | 12k | $358k (exactly $358,081) | DESTINYbit | |
| | Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX | $39.99 | 257 76% | 7.7k | $308k (exactly $308,323) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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