Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Adventure

Of 79 developers who shipped an Adventure Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 140 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $29k, ×46 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2620 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 140 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 45.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 140 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $42k → $375k → $32k → $60k → $41k → $16k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Median $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,892)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 794
Announced 140
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Roguelite
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 25,296 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.4k, median $29k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 140 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth older $69.99 16,339 90% 490k $34M (exactly $34,306,998) RGG Studio
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
South Park™: The Fractured But Whole™ older $29.99 31,985 85% 960k $29M (exactly $28,776,904) Ubisoft San Francisco
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Lootbound $14.99 1,248 77% 37k $561k (exactly $561,226) ArtDock
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.