Should I ship a PvP Adventure game?
PvP + Adventure
Of 309 developers who shipped a PvP Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 969 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2415 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 969 games are announced against 169 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,175) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 309 |
| Released games | 1,374 |
| Announced | 969 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 33%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 392,028 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 235 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 969 games are announced against 169 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M 
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
 | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
 | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
 | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
 | Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands | older | $49.99 | 99,590 78% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,355,123) | Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade) |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Halloween: The Game | $39.99 | 11,868 68% | 356k | $14M (exactly $14,238,040) | IllFonic | |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Tower Unite | $19.99 | 16,237 89% | 487k | $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) | PixelTail Games | |
 | The Bazaar | $19.99 | 14,931 70% | 448k | $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) | Tempo | |
 | HumanitZ | $19.99 | 11,155 74% | 335k | $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) | Yodubzz Studios | |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | ATLYSS | · EA | $9.99 | 19,244 96% | 577k | $5.8M (exactly $5,767,427) | Kiseff |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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