Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Hunting game?

Hunting + Adventure

Of 107 developers who shipped an Adventure Hunting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1192 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 204 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 204 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 107
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.6k → $2.7k → $3.4k → $2.2k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 107
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,101)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 107
Released games 344
Announced 204
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Survival, Open World
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 55% positive over 240,268 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
The Lightkeeper $7.99 1,081 81% 32k $259k (exactly $259,116) Darkphobia Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.