Do I ship it?

GamesGun CustomizationGun Customization + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Adventure game?

Gun Customization + Adventure

Of 95 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 223 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1009 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 223 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 223 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $2.4k → $40k → $14k → $5.4k → $748 → $1.5k (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,216)
Top 5% $633k (exactly $633,442)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 245
Announced 223
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 95,494 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 223 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
Into the Radius 2 $39.99 5,253 79% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) CM IMMERSIVE
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier™ older $19.99 5,506 71% 165k $3.3M (exactly $3,301,948) Ubisoft Paris, Red Storm Entertainment
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
CONVRGENCE · EA older $24.99 1,562 88% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,171,031) Monkey-With-a-Bomb
Hunting Simulator 2 older $39.99 904 70% 27k $1.1M (exactly $1,084,529) Nacon Studio Ghent
Revita older $16.99 1,734 83% 52k $884k (exactly $883,820) BenStar
Echoes of the Living · EA $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) MoonGlint Studio
Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone · EA $39.99 528 62% 16k $633k (exactly $633,442) The Farm 51
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Z.O.N.A: Origin $19.99 540 83% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) AGaming+
CyberCorp $14.99 351 75% 11k $158k (exactly $157,845) Megame LLC
Time Treker $6.99 399 65% 12k $84k (exactly $83,670) Fuse Game
Lust 'n Dead 🔞 $9.99 212 66% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Octo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.