Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Action RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Action RPG?

PvP + Action RPG

Of 111 developers who shipped a paid PvP Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 413 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1427 the market median. Revenue is up 165% on the market; 413 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 165% on the market, 413 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Action RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 111
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $716 → $2.4k → $3.3k → $748 → $3.2k → $538 (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Action RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 111
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,607)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Developers, 2 yr 111
Released games 445
Announced 413
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 165% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 43%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 85,263 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 413 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin older $39.99 83,722 84% 2.5M $100M (exactly $100,441,283) FromSoftware, Inc.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DARK SOULS™ II older $39.99 33,329 87% 1.0M $40M (exactly $39,984,801) FromSoftware, Inc.
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
ATLYSS · EA $9.99 19,244 96% 577k $5.8M (exactly $5,767,427) Kiseff
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.