Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Action RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action RPG Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Action RPG

Of 23 developers who shipped an Action RPG Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×19 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1248 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 69 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 69 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Action RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $32k → $953k → $543k → $4.9k → $156k → $1.3M (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Action RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Median $26k (exactly $25,583)
Top 25% $458k (exactly $458,171)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 77
Announced 69
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, RPG, Base Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 13,729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.0k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $450k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.0k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dying Light 2015 · $280M Far Cry® Primal 2016 · $35M Tribes of Midgard 2021 · $10M ASKA 2024 · EA · $7.8M Cultivation Tales 2024 · $7.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
Tribes of Midgard older $19.99 17,465 76% 524k $10M (exactly $10,473,760) Norsfell
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
Romestead · EA $13.99 4,660 76% 140k $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802) Beartwigs
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
Beyond the Map · EA $19.99 764 77% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) Glitch Goblins
Ars Notoria · EA $19.99 299 62% 9.0k $179k (exactly $179,310) XRON Software
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Din's Champion $19.99 160 85% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Soldak Entertainment
Not Quite Dead: Open World Survival · EA $12.99 218 61% 6.5k $85k (exactly $84,955) Voidecho Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.