Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike Sandbox?

Sandbox + Action Roguelike

Of 38 developers who shipped an Action Roguelike Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3281 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 121 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 121 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $651k → $898 → $18k → $5.3k → $300 → $898 → $6.6k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,976)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 122
Announced 121
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Action Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 31,545 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M Cultivation Tales 2024 · $7.5M We Who Are About To Die 2022 · EA · $5.4M Gamble With Your Friends 2026 · $4.5M Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Magicite older $9.99 5,802 85% 174k $1.7M (exactly $1,738,859) Sean Young
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
Battle Talent older $19.99 1,194 77% 36k $716k (exactly $716,042) Cydream
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Frontier Legends · EA $29.99 57 40% 1.7k $51k (exactly $51,283) Neojac Entertainment Inc.
Nimbit Frontier · EA $13.99 113 97% 3.4k $47k (exactly $47,426) Megasploot
Absolute Insanity $15.99 57 94% 1.7k $27k (exactly $27,343) Chris Danelon
Beatdown City Survivors $9.99 80 98% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) NuChallenger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.