Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Action Roguelike?

Physics + Action Roguelike

Of 174 developers who shipped a Physics Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 394 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1068 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 394 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 394 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 174
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $748 → $418 → $3.1k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $450 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 174
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,075)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,449)
Top 5% $670k (exactly $670,441)
Developers, 2 yr 174
Released games 345
Announced 394
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Action Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 707,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 394 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M PEAK 2025 · $72M Noita 2020 · $49M Content Warning 2024 · $17M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Pratfall $7.99 2,797 90% 84k $670k (exactly $670,441) Quad Head
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.