Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Action-Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action-Adventure Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Action-Adventure

Of 49 developers who shipped an Action-Adventure Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 133 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×18 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×3095 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 133 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 133 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Action-Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $61k → $115k → $31k → $22k → $28k → $139k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Action-Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Median $25k (exactly $24,588)
Top 25% $154k (exactly $153,523)
Top 5% $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 151
Announced 133
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Action-Adventure; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 86,473 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.0k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.0k. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 133 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
Green Hell older $24.99 79,392 84% 2.4M $60M (exactly $59,520,182) Creepy Jar
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Breathedge older $24.99 14,697 82% 441k $11M (exactly $11,018,341) RedRuins Softworks
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Smalland: Survive the Wilds older $34.99 8,086 82% 243k $8.5M (exactly $8,487,874) Max Ent Games Ltd
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Cubic Odyssey $24.99 2,406 74% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) Atypical Games
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
Breathedge 2 · EA $19.99 1,491 86% 45k $894k (exactly $894,153) RedRuins Softworks
The Gold River Project · EA $24.99 617 62% 19k $463k (exactly $462,565) Fairview Games Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.