Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Sandbox?

Sandbox + Action

Of 609 developers who shipped an Action Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,436 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4592 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 1,436 games are announced against 368 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 1,436 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 609
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $5.4k → $7.0k → $2.2k → $4.9k → $4.0k → $2.7k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 609
Bottom 30% $564 (exactly $564)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,977)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538)
Developers, 2 yr 609
Released games 2,401
Announced 1,436
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,837,376 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 7 in 10 of the 293 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,436 games are announced against 368 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.