Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + 6DOF

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 6DOF Sandbox?

Sandbox + 6DOF

Of 32 developers who shipped a 6DOF Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 69 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 69 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + 6DOF
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $899 → $1.5k → $7.8k → $4.0k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + 6DOF: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,949)
Top 5% $238k (exactly $237,541)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 115
Announced 69
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
6DOF
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, 6DOF; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Character Customization
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with VR, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,525 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
CarX Street older $19.99 17,600 72% 528k $11M (exactly $10,554,720) CarX Technologies, LLC
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
VR HOT · EA older $44.99 998 66% 30k $1.3M (exactly $1,347,001) VR HOT
PANELKI older $7.99 2,404 86% 72k $576k (exactly $576,239) Alexander Gromyko
Townsmen VR older $39.99 426 83% 13k $511k (exactly $511,072) HandyGames
Flight Of Nova · EA older $29.99 537 93% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Aerovery Lab
I Am Cat $19.99 526 68% 16k $315k (exactly $315,442) NEW FOLDER GAMES
Evochron Legacy SE older $24.99 415 82% 12k $311k (exactly $311,126) StarWraith 3D Games LLC
Underspace · EA older $19.99 434 81% 13k $260k (exactly $260,270) Pastaspace Interactive
Captain Hardcore · EA $39.99 198 80% 5.9k $238k (exactly $237,541) AntiZero Games
Forest Doesn’t Care $13.99 251 65% 7.5k $105k (exactly $105,345) MOROZ GAMES
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
Virtual Skate · EA $19.99 96 98% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Flip Axis Studios
DrumBeats VR $14.99 128 65% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Expe… (Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Experiences BV)
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
DACHA $4.99 73 76% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,928) VD Games, PropilGames
Wall Town Wonders $19.99 14 78% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Cyborn B.V.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.